tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Jacksonville → Phoenix via Newark: arrives on time 40%

  1. 16:48 JAX → 19:12 EWR
    UA 2796 · United · 2h 24m · 60% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 12m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:24 EWR → 22:46 PHX
    UA 1814 · United · 5h 22m · 65% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Jacksonville). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 27 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 12m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip8h 58mJAX 16:48 to PHX 22:46, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.