tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Chicago: arrives on time 19%

  1. 19:00 PHL → 20:33 ORD
    UA 2797 · United · 2h 33m · 48% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 ORD → 23:31 XNA
    UA 5767 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 01m · 62% on time, 16.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection39%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 61% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (39%) × second flight not cancelled (16.1% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip5h 31mPHL 19:00 to XNA 23:31, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.