tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Des Moines via Chicago: arrives on time 15%

  1. 19:00 PHL → 20:33 ORD
    UA 2797 · United · 2h 33m · 48% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:25 ORD → 22:56 DSM
    UA 1839 · United · 1h 31m · 60% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection28%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 72% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (28%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip4h 56mPHL 19:00 to DSM 22:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.