tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Memphis via Chicago: arrives on time 11%

  1. 19:00 PHL → 20:33 ORD
    UA 2797 · United · 2h 33m · 48% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:20 ORD → 23:21 MEM
    UA 2317 · United · 2h 01m · 60% on time, 6.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection21%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 79% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time11%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (21%) × second flight not cancelled (6.1% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip5h 21mPHL 19:00 to MEM 23:21, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.