tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → San Juan via Houston: arrives on time 43%

  1. 20:02 ORD → 22:59 IAH
    UA 2813 · United · 2h 57m · 56% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Houston (IAH) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:56 IAH → 05:29 SJU +1 day
    UA 1497 · United · 4h 33m · 86% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 8h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Juan is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip8h 27mORD 20:02 to SJU 05:29, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.