tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Phoenix via Houston: arrives on time 50%

  1. 15:40 EWR → 18:46 IAH
    UA 2815 · United · 4h 06m · 69% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Houston (IAH) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:53 IAH → 20:42 PHX
    UA 2078 · United · 2h 49m · 72% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip8h 02mEWR 15:40 to PHX 20:42, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.