tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → San Diego via Houston: arrives on time 40%

  1. 15:40 EWR → 18:46 IAH
    UA 2815 · United · 4h 06m · 69% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 17m layover in Houston (IAH) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:03 IAH → 21:24 SAN
    UA 2407 · United · 3h 21m · 56% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 32 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 17m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip8h 44mEWR 15:40 to SAN 21:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.