Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
San Francisco → Chicago via Tampa: arrives on time 30%
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10:35 SFO → 18:53 TPAUA 2818 · United · 5h 18m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled
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49m layover in Tampa (TPA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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19:42 TPA → 21:53 ORDUA 2801 · United · 3h 11m · 64% on time, 1.4% cancelled
Total trip 9h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection47%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 53% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (47%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip9h 18mSFO 10:35 to ORD 21:53, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.