Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Seattle → Chicago via San Francisco: arrives on time 13%
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08:45 SEA → 11:03 SFOUA 2831 · United · 2h 18m · 33% on time, 2.8% cancelled
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57m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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12:00 SFO → 18:35 ORDUA 2317 · United · 4h 35m · 50% on time, 2.8% cancelled
Total trip 7h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection28%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 72% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (28%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip7h 50mSEA 08:45 to ORD 18:35, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.