tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → St Louis via Chicago: arrives on time 30%

  1. 10:52 SEA → 17:05 ORD
    UA 2835 · United · 4h 13m · 72% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:55 ORD → 19:23 STL
    UA 4412 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 28m · 56% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip6h 31mSEA 10:52 to STL 19:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.