tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Tampa via Chicago: arrives on time 40%

  1. 10:52 SEA → 17:05 ORD
    UA 2835 · United · 4h 13m · 72% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:56 ORD → 21:49 TPA
    UA 2865 · United · 2h 53m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip7h 57mSEA 10:52 to TPA 21:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.