tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Hebron via Chicago: arrives on time 40%

  1. 10:52 SEA → 17:05 ORD
    UA 2835 · United · 4h 13m · 72% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:59 ORD → 20:32 CVG
    UA 3677 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 33m · 71% on time, 8.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 20 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (8.8% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip6h 40mSEA 10:52 to CVG 20:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.