tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Tucson via San Francisco: arrives on time 23%

  1. 18:00 ATL → 20:10 SFO
    UA 285 · United · 5h 10m · 42% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:57 SFO → 23:26 TUS
    UA 5688 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 29m · 77% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 8h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tucson is 3 h behind Atlanta). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection30%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 70% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (30%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip8h 26mATL 18:00 to TUS 23:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.