tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Reno → Atlanta via San Francisco: arrives on time 16%

  1. 18:55 RNO → 20:13 SFO
    UA 2850 · United · 1h 18m · 18% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:20 SFO → 05:20 ATL +1 day
    UA 1603 · United · 5h 00m · 85% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 7h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Reno). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection19%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 81% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (19%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip7h 25mRNO 18:55 to ATL 05:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.