tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Burbank → Dulles via San Francisco: arrives on time 48%

  1. 20:22 BUR → 21:50 SFO
    UA 2854 · United · 1h 28m · 53% on time, 0.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:05 SFO → 07:30 IAD +1 day
    UA 1083 · United · 5h 25m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (0.4% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip8h 08mBUR 20:22 to IAD 07:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.