tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Anchorage via San Francisco: arrives on time 50%

  1. 15:33 SEA → 17:47 SFO
    UA 2866 · United · 2h 14m · 56% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:47 SFO → 22:46 ANC
    UA 1594 · United · 4h 59m · 89% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip8h 13mSEA 15:33 to ANC 22:46, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.