tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Tampa via San Francisco: arrives on time 85%

  1. 15:33 SEA → 17:47 SFO
    UA 2866 · United · 2h 14m · 56% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 26m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:13 SFO → 05:38 TPA +1 day
    UA 649 · United · 5h 25m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 11h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 161 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 26m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip11h 05mSEA 15:33 to TPA 05:38, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.