tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Sacramento via Chicago: arrives on time 76%

  1. 06:00 MSP → 07:44 ORD
    UA 307 · United · 1h 44m · 92% on time, 2.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:04 ORD → 11:51 SMF
    UA 2145 · United · 4h 47m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time76%First flight not cancelled (2.6% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip7h 51mMSP 06:00 to SMF 11:51, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.