tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Manchester via Chicago: arrives on time 43%

  1. 17:00 PHL → 18:33 ORD
    UA 308 · United · 2h 33m · 63% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 38m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 20:11 ORD → 23:30 MHT
    AA 4149 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 31m · 84% on time, 4.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 1h 38m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (4.4% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip6h 42mPHL 17:00 to MHT 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.