tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Milwaukee via Chicago: arrives on time 48%

  1. 17:00 PHL → 18:33 ORD
    UA 308 · United · 2h 33m · 63% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 12m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 ORD → 20:56 MKE
    UA 4711 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 11m · 70% on time, 5.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 27 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 12m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (5.8% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip4h 56mPHL 17:00 to MKE 20:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.