tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Madison via Chicago: arrives on time 51%

  1. 17:00 PHL → 18:33 ORD
    UA 308 · United · 2h 33m · 63% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 12m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 ORD → 20:57 MSN
    UA 5768 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 12m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 27 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 12m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip4h 57mPHL 17:00 to MSN 20:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.