tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Des Moines via Chicago: arrives on time 43%

  1. 17:00 PHL → 18:33 ORD
    UA 308 · United · 2h 33m · 63% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 12m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 ORD → 21:22 DSM
    UA 1325 · United · 1h 37m · 64% on time, 6.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 22m, scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 27 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 12m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (6.7% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip5h 22mPHL 17:00 to DSM 21:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.