tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Dulles via Chicago: arrives on time 68%

  1. 06:50 PHX → 12:28 ORD
    UA 356 · United · 3h 38m · 88% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 3h 25m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:53 ORD → 19:02 IAD
    UA 2437 · United · 2h 09m · 71% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 9h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 160 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 25m layover.
Arrives on time68%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip9h 12mPHX 06:50 to IAD 19:02, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.