tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Knoxville via Dulles: arrives on time 53%

  1. 15:40 DEN → 21:11 IAD
    UA 421 · United · 3h 31m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:10 IAD → 23:54 TYS
    UA 4304 · United, flown by CommuteAir · 1h 44m · 76% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (Knoxville is 2 h ahead of Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip6h 14mDEN 15:40 to TYS 23:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.