tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Tulsa via Denver: arrives on time 50%

  1. 18:29 AUS → 20:00 DEN
    UA 439 · United · 2h 31m · 68% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:55 DEN → 23:47 TUL
    UA 4712 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 52m · 81% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip5h 18mAUS 18:29 to TUL 23:47, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.