tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Denver: arrives on time 38%

  1. 18:23 MSP → 19:45 DEN
    UA 467 · United · 2h 22m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:37 DEN → 23:44 XNA
    UA 5269 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 07m · 74% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip5h 21mMSP 18:23 to XNA 23:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.