tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Sacramento via Denver: arrives on time 32%

  1. 18:23 MSP → 19:45 DEN
    UA 467 · United · 2h 22m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:40 DEN → 22:15 SMF
    UA 1268 · United · 2h 35m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip5h 52mMSP 18:23 to SMF 22:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.