tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Reno via Denver: arrives on time 40%

  1. 18:23 MSP → 19:45 DEN
    UA 467 · United · 2h 22m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:00 DEN → 22:26 RNO
    UA 2852 · United · 2h 26m · 63% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip6h 03mMSP 18:23 to RNO 22:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.