tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Santa Ana via Denver: arrives on time 35%

  1. 18:23 MSP → 19:45 DEN
    UA 467 · United · 2h 22m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:32 DEN → 22:01 SNA
    UA 725 · United · 2h 29m · 80% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection44%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 56% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (44%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip5h 38mMSP 18:23 to SNA 22:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.