tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Louisville via Atlanta: arrives on time 80%

  1. 12:35 IAD → 14:34 ATL
    UA 471 · United · 1h 59m · 86% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 3h 25m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 17:59 ATL → 19:24 SDF
    DL 2831 · Delta · 1h 25m · 84% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 115 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 25m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip6h 49mIAD 12:35 to SDF 19:24, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.