tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Jacksonville via Newark: arrives on time 47%

  1. 16:31 ORD → 20:07 EWR
    UA 485 · United · 2h 36m · 57% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:22 EWR → 23:59 JAX
    UA 2335 · United · 2h 37m · 74% on time, 3.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (3.1% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip6h 28mORD 16:31 to JAX 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.