tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Buffalo via Newark: arrives on time 32%

  1. 16:31 ORD → 20:07 EWR
    UA 485 · United · 2h 36m · 57% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:59 EWR → 22:40 BUF
    UA 3476 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 41m · 78% on time, 14.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 41 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (14.8% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip5h 09mORD 16:31 to BUF 22:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.