tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Memphis via Newark: arrives on time 44%

  1. 16:31 ORD → 20:07 EWR
    UA 485 · United · 2h 36m · 57% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 19m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:26 EWR → 23:30 MEM
    UA 3563 · United, flown by Republic · 3h 04m · 79% on time, 15.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 34 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 19m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (15.3% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip6h 59mORD 16:31 to MEM 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.