tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Chicago via Denver: arrives on time 31%

  1. 15:25 MEM → 17:09 DEN
    UA 498 · United · 2h 44m · 72% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 DEN → 21:39 ORD
    UA 1411 · United · 2h 39m · 50% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip6h 14mMEM 15:25 to ORD 21:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.