tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Sacramento via San Francisco: arrives on time 35%

  1. 18:59 BWI → 21:50 SFO
    UA 504 · United · 5h 51m · 56% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:54 SFO → 23:59 SMF
    UA 1302 · United · 1h 05m · 59% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip8h 00mBWI 18:59 to SMF 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.