tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Dayton via Chicago: arrives on time 38%

  1. 15:30 ATL → 16:57 ORD
    UA 516 · United · 2h 27m · 74% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:51 ORD → 20:22 DAY
    UA 4484 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 31m · 59% on time, 4.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (4.4% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip4h 52mATL 15:30 to DAY 20:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.