tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Appleton via Chicago: arrives on time 36%

  1. 15:30 ATL → 16:57 ORD
    UA 516 · United · 2h 27m · 74% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 ORD → 19:22 ATW
    UA 4772 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 22m · 53% on time, 8.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 1 h behind Atlanta). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (8.1% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip4h 52mATL 15:30 to ATW 19:22, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.