tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Providence via Chicago: arrives on time 45%

  1. 15:30 ATL → 16:57 ORD
    UA 516 · United · 2h 27m · 74% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:50 ORD → 21:33 PVD
    UA 5442 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 43m · 74% on time, 8.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (8.1% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip6h 03mATL 15:30 to PVD 21:33, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.