tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Nashville via Chicago: arrives on time 45%

  1. 15:30 ATL → 16:57 ORD
    UA 516 · United · 2h 27m · 74% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:58 ORD → 19:44 BNA
    UA 2784 · United · 1h 46m · 63% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Atlanta). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip5h 14mATL 15:30 to BNA 19:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.