tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Louisville via Chicago: arrives on time 49%

  1. 15:30 ATL → 16:57 ORD
    UA 516 · United · 2h 27m · 74% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:50 ORD → 20:23 SDF
    UA 3598 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 33m · 77% on time, 4.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (4.0% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip4h 53mATL 15:30 to SDF 20:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.