tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Traverse City via Chicago: arrives on time 79%

  1. 06:00 EWR → 07:42 ORD
    UA 530 · United · 2h 42m · 92% on time, 4.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 09:32 ORD → 11:54 TVC
    AA 4190 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 22m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 1h 50m layover.
Arrives on time79%First flight not cancelled (4.5% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip5h 54mEWR 06:00 to TVC 11:54, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.