tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Tampa via Chicago: arrives on time 77%

  1. 06:00 EWR → 07:42 ORD
    UA 530 · United · 2h 42m · 92% on time, 4.5% cancelled
  2. 3h 37m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:19 ORD → 15:12 TPA
    UA 1834 · United · 2h 53m · 83% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 9h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 172 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 37m layover.
Arrives on time77%First flight not cancelled (4.5% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip9h 12mEWR 06:00 to TPA 15:12, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.