tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Sacramento via Chicago: arrives on time 73%

  1. 06:00 EWR → 07:42 ORD
    UA 530 · United · 2h 42m · 92% on time, 4.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 22m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:04 ORD → 11:51 SMF
    UA 2145 · United · 4h 47m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 37 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 22m layover.
Arrives on time73%First flight not cancelled (4.5% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip8h 51mEWR 06:00 to SMF 11:51, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.