tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 85%

  1. 06:00 EWR → 07:42 ORD
    UA 530 · United · 2h 42m · 92% on time, 4.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:02 ORD → 11:03 PHX
    UA 2225 · United · 4h 01m · 95% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 8h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (4.5% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (95%).
Total trip8h 03mEWR 06:00 to PHX 11:03, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.