tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Louisville via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 78%

  1. 07:15 ORD → 09:58 DFW
    UA 539 · United · 2h 43m · 82% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 09m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 12:07 DFW → 15:22 SDF
    AA 3758 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 15m · 88% on time, 2.4% cancelled

Total trip 7h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection91%The first flight arrived more than 39 minutes late on 9% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 09m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (91%) × second flight not cancelled (2.4% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip7h 07mORD 07:15 to SDF 15:22, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.