tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Raleigh/Durham via Chicago: arrives on time 54%

  1. 11:32 MSP → 13:15 ORD
    UA 576 · United · 1h 43m · 73% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:13 ORD → 17:27 RDU
    UA 2091 · United · 2h 14m · 79% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip4h 55mMSP 11:32 to RDU 17:27, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.