tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Milwaukee via Chicago: arrives on time 29%

  1. 17:32 BWI → 18:55 ORD
    UA 590 · United · 2h 23m · 57% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 ORD → 20:56 MKE
    UA 4711 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 11m · 70% on time, 5.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 1 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (5.8% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip4h 24mBWI 17:32 to MKE 20:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.