Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Baltimore → Sacramento via Chicago: arrives on time 32%
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17:32 BWI → 18:55 ORDUA 590 · United · 2h 23m · 57% on time, 0.6% cancelled
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58m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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19:53 ORD → 22:37 SMFUA 1828 · United · 4h 44m · 62% on time, 3.8% cancelled
Total trip 8h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip8h 05mBWI 17:32 to SMF 22:37, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.