tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 34%

  1. 17:12 RDU → 18:42 ORD
    UA 630 · United · 2h 30m · 45% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:57 ORD → 21:41 MSP
    UA 2005 · United · 1h 44m · 58% on time, 4.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (4.0% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip5h 29mRDU 17:12 to MSP 21:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.