tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Los Angeles via Chicago: arrives on time 39%

  1. 17:12 RDU → 18:42 ORD
    UA 630 · United · 2h 30m · 45% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 36m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:18 ORD → 22:55 LAX
    UA 2499 · United · 4h 37m · 58% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 51 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 36m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip8h 43mRDU 17:12 to LAX 22:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.